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By Rosanna SmartTerry L. Summary: There is no standard definition of what constitutes a mass essays about violence, and different data sources—such as media outlets, academic researchers, and law enforcement agencies—frequently use different definitions when discussing and analyzing mass shootings.
For instance, when various organizations measure and report on mass shootings, the criteria they use in counting such events might differ by the minimum threshold for the number of victims, whether the victim count includes those who were not fatally injured, where the shooting occurred, whether the shooting occurred in connection to another crime, and the relationship between the shooter and the victims.
These inconsistencies lead to different assessments of how frequently mass shootings occur and whether they are more common now than they were a decade or two ago, essays about violence. Data show that, regardless of how one defines mass shootings, perpetrators are likely to be men.
But several other characteristics that are statistically predictive of perpetration are still uncommon among offenders on an absolute level. The rare nature of mass shootings creates challenges for accurately identifying salient predictors of risk and limits statistical power for detecting which policies may be effective in reducing mass shooting incidence or lethality. Implementing broader violence prevention strategies rather than focusing specifically on the most-extreme forms of such violence may be effective at reducing the occurrence and lethality of mass shootings.
Incidents of mass firearm violence galvanize public attention. There has been extensive media coverage of many incidents in the United States in which individuals have used firearms to kill large numbers of people. These mass public shootings are rare events—they constitute less than 15 percent of all mass killings in the United States and are responsible for less than 0.
In this essay, we first describe different approaches for defining a mass shooting and discuss how using different definitions can influence estimates of mass shooting levels and trends.
We then summarize findings from the literature regarding the characteristics of mass shootings, including offender characteristics, types of firearm s used, and community-level correlates.
We conclude with a brief discussion of the substantial methodological challenges for evaluating how gun policies affect mass shootings, essays about violence.
Our discussion here is focused on mass essays about violence in the U. The U. government has never defined mass shooting as a separate category of crime, and there is not yet a broadly accepted definition of the term. InCongress defined mass killing as a single incident that leaves three or more people essays about violence Pub.
However, both definitions include many incidents that would not be considered mass shootings. Furthermore, neither definition was established for the purpose of data collection or statistical analyses.
The FBI classification of mass murderer was established primarily with the aim of clarifying criminal essays about violence procedures Ressler, Burgess, and Douglas,and the congressional definition was intended to clarify statutory authority for the provision of U. Department of Justice investigatory assistance requested by state and local agencies Pub.
Thus, various news outlets, researchers, and law enforcement agencies often use different definitions when reporting on mass shootings, which can complicate our understanding of mass shooting trends and their relationship to gun policy. Depending on which data source is referenced, essays about violence, there were somewhere between six and mass shootings and between 60 and mass shooting fatalities in a Before Januarythe casualty threshold for the Mother Jones data was four people fatally injured excluding the shooter.
b As of this writing, the Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund's Mass Shootings in America website with interactive map was up to date as of April 28, However, essays about violence, the group's downloadable data included incidents through only. c Stanford's Mass Shootings in America database was permanently suspended in mid In this table, we provide incident and fatality counts forthe last year of complete data collection.
For archived data, see Stanford Geospatial Center, Although there is no official standard for the casualty threshold that distinguishes a mass shooting from other violent crimes involving a firearm, essays about violence, a common approach in the literature is to set a casualty threshold of four fatalities by firearm, excluding the offender or offenders Fox and Levin, ; Duwe, Kovandzic, and Moody, essays about violence Gius, c; Krouse and Richardson, ; Fox and Fridel, Using this criterion essays about violence reduce measurement error in identifying mass shootings because fatalities are captured in administrative data and are frequently included in media reports Duwe, However, essays about violence, this categorization is not without controversy.
It does not essays about violence incidents in which fewer than four victims were killed but additional victims were nonfatally injured, and it does not include multiple-victim homicides in which fewer than four fatalities resulted from gunshots but additional fatalities occurred by other means. Thus, essays about violence, many have chosen alternative definitions of casualty thresholds for mass shootings.
For instance, Lott and Landes adopted the definition of two or more injured victims, Kleck used a six-victim casualty threshold, the Gun Violence Archive undated-a defined mass shooting as an incident in which four or more victims excluding the shooter are injured or killed, and the Mass Shooting Tracker undated set a criterion of four or more people injured or killed including the shooter.
Another definitional disagreement is whether to include multiple-victim shooting incidents that occur in connection with some other crime or domestic dispute.
Because mass shootings that stem from domestic and gang violence are contextually distinct from high-fatality indiscriminate killings in public venues, some analysts have argued that they should be treated separately.
Similarly, other researchers e. However, others have claimed that this narrow definition ignores a substantial proportion of gun-related violence from family- or felony-related murder Fox and Levin, Furthermore, determinants of whether victims were selected indiscriminately or whether the incidents were gang- or crime-related are, to some degree, subjective. In contrast, essays about violence, the Mass Shooting Tracker and the Gun Violence Archive count as mass shootings all incidents that meet their designated casualty threshold, regardless of the circumstances that led to the event or the motivation of the shooter.
These definitions make a substantial difference in which incidents are counted. More-restrictive definitions e. Broader definitions e. Furthermore, if the effects of a firearm policy are expected to affect only mass public shooting incidents, then analyses that include domestic violence mass shootings could obscure identification of the expected effects of the policy, essays about violence.
Thus, there is value in having multiple measurements of mass shootings—but only if their definitions are clearly and precisely explained and they are used by researchers in a manner appropriate to the analysis, essays about violence. Although researchers, policymakers, and reporters may rightly make different decisions about the criteria they wish to use to define what counts as a mass shooting, these decisions fundamentally shape the scope of incidents considered, as well as the potential for measurement error in their data.
Data sets that use definitions based solely on objective criteria that are widely available across multiple sources e. Mother Jonesthe Mass Shooter Database, and the Mass Shootings in America database are examples of sources that use some subjective criteria.
In the absence of a clear conceptual reason for restricting mass shooting incidents of interest based on subjective criteria, evaluations are likely to produce more-reliable and more-replicable results when using data sources that define mass shootings based only on fatality thresholds see Table 1. Another fundamental issue in documenting mass shootings, and in reconciling differences across data sets, is that the methods used to collect information on mass shootings also vary across sources.
However, the SHR database relies on voluntary submissions by thousands of separate law enforcement agencies. It does not capture all incidents about 90 percent completenessand this missingness is not random. Sometimes, entire states essays about violence not submit data for a year or for part of a year, and in most states and years, at least some law enforcement agencies do not submit complete data Fox, ; Fox and Swatt, In addition to missingness by jurisdiction, there is a high degree of missingness for data elements, particularly in offender characteristics e.
Others have cross-referenced Essays about violence incidents with historical news records and found issues of coding errors in the SHR database that could affect identification of mass shooting incidents e. Although researchers have noted that these recording errors are relatively uncommon in the SHR, the errors are still important considerations for using the SHR to assess mass shootings Duwe, ; Fox, Finally, the SHR provides relatively limited detail on offender or victim characteristics, firearm types, and incident setting.
Given these limitations, most data sources for mass shootings do not derive solely from the SHR, essays about violence. Essays about violence sources e. Differences in data collection strategies, in large part, reflect differences in the mass shooting definitions employed e. b This column represents the data elements that the source attempts to capture; in many cases, these fields are missing information.
c For this data set and reporting on it, see Everytown for Gun Safety Essays about violence Fund, However, variation in the sources examined to identify incidents can result essays about violence varying degrees of completeness or reliability. Data sets that rely solely on news sources or crowd-sourcing i. Systemic biases in the types of incidents that receive widespread media coverage affect the number of incidents that are counted but might also misrepresent the relative characteristics of offenders, victims, or communities involved Silva and Capellan, a, b.
Finally, essays about violence, the media landscape has changed dramatically over the past three decades; daily local newspapers have disappeared across much of the United States, and the extent to which news sources are searchable on the internet has also changed Duwe, Thus, any comparison over time in the number or characteristics of mass shootings necessarily involves comparisons across different media sources with different coverage areas, intended audiences, and editorial practices.
However, it is a challenging effort to ensure that different sources of information about the same incident are properly linked i. Thus, data sets that triangulate across multiple underlying sources e. And even when data sources use the same definition of what constitutes a mass shooting, variation in data collection methods can result in different estimates of mass shooting prevalence, essays about violence.
Greater missingness occurred for incidents further back in time, likely because of greater challenges with accessing comprehensive news accounts prior to widespread use of digital media for news reporting, essays about violence. When triangulating across essays about violence sets, the researchers identified 32 unique mass shooting incidents, but only two incidents 6.
For further discussion, see Booty et al, essays about violence. Department of Homeland Security, essays about violence, p. Using a modified version of this definition essays about violence include incidents that had multiple offenders or occurred in confined spaces, Blair and Schweit found that active shootings had increased from only one incident in to 17 in The FBI active shooting reports, which are now produced annually, identified 20 active shooter incidents in30 incidents in27 incidents inand 28 incidents in FBI, essays about violence, g, g, Setting a threshold of zero victims increases the potential for measurement error, because shooting incidents with no casualties are more difficult to identify from police records and are less likely to receive media coverage Duwe, Kovandzic, and Moody, Additionally, because it should essays about violence relatively easier to identify more-recent shootings with few fatalities, a low casualty threshold will tend to systematically bias estimates of the number of shootings upward over time.
Even when a more restrictive casualty threshold of four or more fatally injured victims excluding the shooter is imposed, empirical evidence essays about violence trends in these incidents varies depending on whether the motivation of the shooter is included as a criterion for considering an event a mass shooting. Duwe adopted similar distinctions in his analysis of mass shootings over the longer time frame of to Figures 1 and 2 show trends in mass shooting incidents and mass shooting fatalities, using the data provided by Duwewho created his own data set aggregating across several of the sources described in this essay.
The data from multiple studies suggest a slight increase in the incidence rate of mass public shootings over the past four decades Cohen, Azrael, and Miller, ; Krouse and Richardson, essays about violence, ; Duwe, From tothe annual rate of mass public shooting incidents was about one incident per 50 million people in the United States Duwe, Considering the number of fatalities in these shootings, this corresponds to approximately 0.
However, using an expanded definition of mass shootings that includes domestic- or felony-related killings, there is little evidence to suggest that mass shooting incidents or fatalities have increased Cohen, Azrael, and Miller, ; Essays about violence and Richardson, ; Fox and Fridel, Adjusted for changes in the size of the U. population, the incidence of all mass shootings four or more fatally injured victims, essays about violence, excluding the offender, regardless of shooter motivation or circumstances was highest in the late s and early s, averaging one incident per 10 million people from to Duwe, More recently, between andthe annual rate of all mass shooting incidents was about one incident per 14 million people Duwe, Considering the number of fatalities in these mass shootings, this corresponds to approximately 0.
Thus, different choices about how to define a mass shooting result in different findings for both the prevalence of these events at a given time and whether their frequency has changed over time. Even if we set aside the facts that reliance on different data sources over time complicates measurement and that findings can depend on how mass shootings are defined, the relative rarity of mass shooting events makes analysis of trends particularly difficult.
Chance variability in the annual number of mass shooting incidents makes it hard to discern a clear trend in the risk of such incidents, and trend estimates are sensitive to outliers and to the time frame chosen for analysis Fox and DeLateur, For example, although Krouse and Richardson found evidence of an upward trend in mass public shootings from tothey noted that the increase was driven largely by events inin which there was an unusually high number of mass public shooting incidents.
Conducting his own analysis to cover throughand adjusting the data to exclude events with fewer than two fatalities, Lott found a much smaller and statistically insignificant increase less than 1 percent annually in mass shooting fatalities over time.
However, when other researchers extended the time frame to cover more-recent years and used a four-fatality threshold for mass public shootings, their essays about violence suggested a significant increase in the incidence and lethality of these events over time Sanders and Lei, ; Duwe, ; Lankford and Silver, The leverage of extreme incidents is even clearer when examining trends in the number of casualties from mass public shootings over time Figure 3.
The data on essays about violence and injuries from mass public shootings are particularly striking: Just one of the seven incidents that occurred the Las Vegas shooting in October accounted for more than half of all mass public shooting fatalities and nonfatal injuries in that year.
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